I found a real gem in Value Village this week, a signed 1st edition of a classic critique:
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James Burnham, Suicide of the West, John Day, 1964 |
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thank you for donating to your local charities |
If Congress shanks President Trump (damn, that still feels so good to type) this week, we get a brief market crash comparable to the impulses that took us down to the 1810 lows in mid-2015 and early 2016, a decline of about 12%, to support around 2336.
Congress adjourns for Christmas break next Friday, 12/15, so it's likely they patch things up by then, hopefully without Trump cucking on DACA, but with the result being a fierce rally into EOY.
With the ^IRX at 128 bps, we may also witness the incredible event of the Fed hiking next week during the government shutdown. The policy wheels are already in motion, so why should they change course due to some infighting over fiscal policy? What a sight this will be!
But the damage will have been done, and we can start finding our way back to the 1810 level by mid-February, with a bounce into March FOMC. When the Fed maintains their course, it will set into motion the hellishly-bearish market events for the rest of 2018.
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SPX steep decline to 1810 support |